Precision Dysregulation Across Hierarchical Predictive Systems:
An Evolutionary–Existential Integration of Schizophrenia and Bipolar Spectrum Disorders
Abstract
This paper proposes an integrative theoretical framework unifying evolutionary epistemology, predictive processing theory, dopamine-mediated precision encoding, and existential psychiatry. We conceptualize psychosis and bipolar spectrum disorders as disorders of hierarchical precision regulation within predictive systems. Schizophrenia is characterized as maladaptive hyper-precision of lower-level prediction errors coupled with instability of higher-order generative models, leading to fragmentation of information structure and delusion formation. Mania is modeled as pathological over-allocation of precision to exploratory priors (runaway exploration mode), whereas depression is reconceptualized as excessive fixation of prediction errors (error entrenchment). Schizoaffective conditions are interpreted as cross-hierarchical dysregulation. We further integrate the “manic-first hypothesis” within a developmental precision-instability framework. Clinical implications for cognitive-behavioral therapy and existential psychotherapy are elaborated. Two detailed case formulations illustrate the model’s explanatory and therapeutic utility.
1. Introduction
Why does the human brain successfully grasp the structure of the world?
Evolutionary epistemology suggests that cognition evolved not to discover absolute truth, but to generate models sufficiently adaptive for survival.
Contemporary predictive processing theory (Friston, Clark) conceptualizes the brain as a hierarchical generative model minimizing prediction error via Bayesian inference. However, psychopathology remains incompletely integrated into this framework.
We propose that major psychiatric syndromes can be reconceptualized as disorders of precision allocation across hierarchical levels of predictive processing.
2. Evolutionary Epistemology and Precision Allocation
Evolution does not optimize for truth but for adaptive fit. Organisms must balance:
- Stability (model persistence)
- Flexibility (model updating)
This balance is mathematically regulated by precision weighting — the confidence assigned to priors versus sensory prediction errors.
From an evolutionary perspective:
- Excessive flexibility → instability
- Excessive rigidity → maladaptation
- Optimal cognition = dynamic precision regulation
Psychiatric disorders represent systematic breakdowns of this regulation.
3. Schizophrenia as Hierarchical Information Structural Collapse
3.1 Core Hypothesis
Schizophrenia involves:
- Hyper-precision of lower-level prediction errors
- Destabilization of higher-level priors
- Failure of hierarchical integration
This produces aberrant salience, fragmentation of meaning, and compensatory delusion formation.
Delusion is not random irrationality but an emergency attempt to restore global coherence within a destabilized generative hierarchy.
3.2 Information Structural Collapse
We define psychosis as:
A breakdown of cross-level informational coherence in hierarchical predictive systems.
The subject experiences:
- Perceptual anomalies (micro-level instability)
- Hyper-significance of trivial stimuli
- Compensatory narrative construction (macro-level re-stabilization)
4. Bipolar Spectrum as Precision Oscillation Disorder
4.1 Mania: Runaway Exploration Mode
Mania is conceptualized as excessive precision assigned to high-level exploratory priors.
Formally:
- Prior precision ↑↑
- Sensory constraint ↓
- Model updating biased toward novelty seeking
Clinically:
- Grandiosity
- Reduced need for sleep
- Risk-taking
- Rapid associative thinking
Mania represents evolutionary exploration mode without regulatory constraint.
4.2 Depression: Error Entrenchment
Depression is reconceptualized as excessive fixation of prediction errors.
- Prediction error precision ↑
- Prior flexibility ↓
- Negative self-model rigidified
Result:
- Hopelessness
- Learned helplessness
- Reduced behavioral exploration
4.3 Continuous Precision Fluctuation Model
We propose bipolar spectrum as a continuous oscillatory instability in precision allocation across hierarchical levels.
5. Schizoaffective Disorder as Cross-Hierarchical Dysregulation
Schizoaffective presentations involve:
- Lower-level hyper-precision (psychotic features)
- Higher-level oscillatory instability (mood dysregulation)
This explains phenomenological overlap without requiring categorical separation.
6. Dopamine as Neural Implementation of Precision Encoding
Empirical work suggests dopamine encodes precision of prediction errors.
- Elevated striatal dopamine → increased salience attribution
- Mania → dopaminergic overdrive in exploratory circuits
- Psychosis → aberrant salience assignment
- Depression → altered dopaminergic prediction error signaling
Thus dopamine functions as a biological gain-control mechanism for hierarchical inference.
7. Integration with the Manic-First Hypothesis
The manic-first hypothesis proposes that bipolar disorder may originate in manic dysregulation.
Within our framework:
Early instability in exploratory precision regulation
→ neurodevelopmental vulnerability
→ later compensatory depressive stabilization
→ oscillatory system organization
8. Existential Psychiatry and Predictive Processing
Predictive models are not merely computational; they structure meaning.
When hierarchical coherence collapses:
- The self-model destabilizes.
- World-model coherence dissolves.
- Existential anxiety intensifies.
Psychosis may represent an existential emergency attempt at restoring meaning.
Depression may represent collapse of future-oriented predictive projection.
Thus predictive processing and existential psychiatry converge at the level of self-world modeling.
9. Clinical Case 1: Schizophrenia
Patient A (28-year-old male)
Symptoms:
- Auditory hallucinations
- Referential delusions
- Social withdrawal
Formulation:
- Hyper-precision of auditory prediction errors
- Failure of top-down contextual priors
- Compensatory delusional narrative (“surveillance system”)
Treatment:
- Antipsychotic (dopamine modulation)
- CBT: gradual re-weighting of alternative interpretations
- Existential therapy: restoring narrative coherence
Outcome:
Improved hierarchical integration; delusion rigidity decreased.
10. Clinical Case 2: Bipolar I Disorder
Patient B (35-year-old female)
Manic phase:
- Decreased sleep
- Grand business plans
- Increased spending
Formulation:
- Over-precision of exploratory priors
- Reduced sensory constraint
- Accelerated generative model updating
Depressive phase:
- Rumination
- Self-blame
- Behavioral inhibition
Treatment:
- Mood stabilizer
- Behavioral activation (controlled exploration)
- CBT targeting precision misallocation
Outcome:
Reduced oscillation amplitude.
11. Clinical Implications
11.1 CBT Reformulation
CBT can be reconceptualized as guided precision recalibration:
- Testing priors
- Modulating error weighting
- Restoring hierarchical coherence
11.2 Existential Therapy
- Stabilizing self-model
- Reconstructing meaning hierarchies
- Supporting adaptive uncertainty tolerance
12. Discussion
This model integrates:
- Evolutionary epistemology
- Predictive processing
- Dopaminergic precision encoding
- Bipolar and psychotic phenomenology
- Existential psychiatry
It avoids reductionism by recognizing:
- Biological implementation
- Computational structure
- Phenomenological meaning
Psychiatric disorders become disorders of adaptive inference rather than categorical brain diseases.
13. Limitations and Future Directions
- Empirical validation required
- Neuroimaging precision metrics needed
- Longitudinal oscillation modeling required
- Cross-cultural existential modulation research
14. Conclusion
Psychosis and bipolar spectrum disorders can be reconceptualized as hierarchical precision dysregulation within evolutionary predictive systems.
Delusion is compensatory coherence construction.
Mania is runaway exploration.
Depression is error fixation.
Psychiatry, thus, becomes the science of restoring adaptive precision balance in meaning-generating organisms.
