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FIGURE PACKAGE

Precision Dysregulation Across Hierarchical Predictive Systems

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Figure 1

Hierarchical Predictive Processing Framework

🔷 Figure Layout

縦方向の3階層モデル（トップダウン矢印＋ボトムアップ矢印）

Top level:

• Self-model / Meaning priors

Middle level:

• Contextual models / Social inference

Lower level:

• Sensory predictions

Arrows:

• Downward arrows = Predictions (priors)
• Upward arrows = Prediction errors
• Gain knobs on each arrow = Precision weighting

右側に small box:

“Adaptive balance = flexible precision allocation”

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🔷 Figure Caption (投稿用)

Figure 1. Hierarchical predictive processing model and precision regulation.
The brain is conceptualized as a hierarchical generative system minimizing prediction error through bidirectional message passing. Higher levels encode abstract priors (self-model, meaning), while lower levels process sensory inputs. Precision weighting regulates the relative influence of priors and prediction errors. Adaptive cognition depends on flexible precision allocation across hierarchical levels.

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Figure 2

Schizophrenia: Hierarchical Information Structural Collapse

🔷 Layout

Same hierarchy as Fig.1 but altered:

Lower level:

• Red thick arrows upward (hyper-precision prediction error)

Higher level:

• Faded priors (unstable high-level model)

Side box:
“Delusion = compensatory coherence reconstruction”

Fragmented network illustration between levels.

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🔷 Caption

Figure 2. Schizophrenia as hierarchical precision dysregulation.
Schizophrenia is modeled as hyper-precision of lower-level prediction errors combined with destabilization of higher-level priors. Excessive bottom-up salience disrupts hierarchical integration, leading to fragmentation of informational coherence. Delusion formation is interpreted as a compensatory attempt to restore global model stability.

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Figure 3

Bipolar Spectrum as Precision Oscillation

🔷 Layout

横軸: Time
縦軸: Precision allocation

Two curves:

Blue curve = Prior precision
Red curve = Prediction error precision

Mania:

• Blue sharply elevated
• Red suppressed

Depression:

• Red elevated
• Blue suppressed

Middle zone:

• Euthymic regulation

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🔷 Caption

Figure 3. Bipolar spectrum as oscillatory precision instability.
Bipolar disorder is conceptualized as dynamic oscillation in hierarchical precision allocation. Mania corresponds to excessive precision of high-level exploratory priors (runaway exploration mode), whereas depression reflects excessive fixation of prediction errors (error entrenchment). Euthymia represents balanced precision regulation.

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Figure 4

Schizoaffective Disorder as Cross-Hierarchical Dysregulation

🔷 Layout

Matrix diagram:

Vertical axis: Hierarchical level
Horizontal axis: Mood oscillation amplitude

Shaded overlapping region:
Psychotic + Affective dysregulation

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🔷 Caption

Figure 4. Schizoaffective disorder as cross-hierarchical precision dysregulation.
Schizoaffective presentations involve simultaneous lower-level hyper-precision (psychotic features) and higher-level oscillatory instability (affective dysregulation), suggesting cross-level inference abnormalities rather than categorical comorbidity.

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Figure 5

Dopamine as Precision Gain Control

🔷 Layout

Striatal dopamine icon in center.

Arrows toward:

• Prediction error units
• Exploratory priors

Labels:

“Increased dopamine → Increased precision gain”

Side annotations:

Psychosis: aberrant salience
Mania: exploratory overdrive
Depression: altered dopaminergic signaling

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🔷 Caption

Figure 5. Dopamine as neural implementation of precision encoding.
Dopamine is proposed to function as a biological gain-control mechanism modulating precision assignment within hierarchical inference. Elevated dopaminergic activity increases salience attribution and exploratory drive, contributing to psychosis and mania. Dysregulated dopamine signaling alters adaptive precision balance.

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Figure 6

Existential Integration: Collapse and Restoration of Meaning

🔷 Layout

Two panels:

Left panel:
Fragmented self-world structure (psychosis)

Right panel:
Reconstructed hierarchical coherence (therapy)

Arrow in between:
“Precision recalibration”

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🔷 Caption

Figure 6. Existential reconstruction through precision recalibration.
Hierarchical predictive models structure self and world meaning. Psychopathology represents collapse or dysregulation of this structure. Therapeutic intervention aims to restore adaptive precision balance and re-establish coherent self-world modeling.

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Supplementary Figure S1 (Optional)

Mathematical Formalization of Precision Weighting

Include:

Bayesian update equation:

Posterior ∝ Likelihood × Prior

Precision-weighted form:

μ_new = μ_prior + Π_error × (prediction error)

Where Π_error = precision (inverse variance)

Caption explaining computational relevance.

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投稿時の構成例

Main text:
Figures 1–6

Supplementary materials:
Mathematical appendix
Developmental model
Simulation proposals

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